ALLIED EQUITY A Diversified Mortgage Company
400 North Mountain Ave., Suite 223, Upland, CA 91786
Phone  909-932-9226 Fax  909-803-9840

Mortgage Related News

Mortgage Rates Stay Steady, Waiting For a Sign

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly higher today, prolonging a 3-day trend of exceptionally light volatility. The 5 days before that (beginning on Wednesday, October 3rd) were completely different, with a huge move higher at first followed by a moderate recovery at the beginning of last week. That recovery largely followed the stock market weakness. Stocks and rates don't always move in the same direction, but when stocks fall as quickly as they did last week, rates usually benefit. After such moves level-off, rates tend to wait for stocks to see if there will be an aftershock or a big bounce. For now, it doesn't look like stocks have made up their mind yet, as they too have continued in a largely sideways pattern during the last 3 trading sessions. Loan Originator Perspective Bond markets...(read more)

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Freddie Mac Announces More "Big Data" Tools

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Freddie Mac is announcing a couple of enhancements to its Loan Advisor underwriting tool. The additional capabilities will allow lenders to automate the assessment of borrower income and assets to reduce documentation which the company says will significantly speed-up the approval process. There are several components to the advances which the company unveiled at the Mortgage Bankers Associations Annual Convention and Expo in Washington which began on Sunday. Automated collateral evaluation combined with collateral rep and warranty relief Automated assessments for borrowers without credit scores Automated asset and income validation. The automated collateral evaluation has been available in some form previously and with this announcement appears to be extended to condominium units . It is unclear...(read more)

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Digital Products, New Book for LO's; Big Bank Mortgage Earnings

Posted To: Pipeline Press

What’s new here at the MBA’s conference in Washington DC? Plenty of secretive M&A closed-door meetings, continued talk that Ginnie is carefully eying non-bank approved Ginnie issuer’s financial situations, conjecture of MI reps’ jobs in the future if all the MI companies roll out pricing engines, and Fannie & Freddie eliminating some “pricing inefficiencies” to end cherry-picking. The FHFA (overseer of F&F) continue to focus on maintaining access to credit, reduced taxpayer risk, and the infrastructure for a single security. There’s also talk about the BofA/NACA 0% down, 4.5% program . We’re going there again? Products, Services, Books, and Events for Lenders Lendsnap, The Digital Mortgage Company™, is hosting private consultations...(read more)

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MBS Week Ahead: Did Bonds Get a Pass From Stocks Last Week?

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Before last week's stock rout, bonds were stuck in a rut. For four straight sessions, they hit the highest intraday yields since 2011. Even after the 3rd biggest stock sell-off since the financial crisis, Treasuries were reluctant to rally in any extreme way. Take away the worst yields of the preceding 4 days and the post-rally levels last week would STILL have been the highest since 2011. There's no question that bonds finally acquiesced to stock volatility as a key market mover. That continued to be the case throughout the week. The lower section of the following chart shows the difference in magnitude between the two moves as well as the consolidative patterns that both have carried into the current week. The implication is that this week will be all about resolving these consolidation...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Uneventful Conclusion to a Crazy Week

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Referring to the week of bond trading as " crazy " is a bit of a stretch. If we bring stocks into the mix, or if we go back to last Wednesday, it's been a crazy 7 business days (bonds were closed on Monday). As you're well aware, stocks were in the spotlight this week and bonds couldn't have looked much less eager to cheer them on. Granted, bonds did what they were supposed to do--eventually--by rallying in response to a gigantic stock sell-off. But the net effect is that 10yr yields can only say they ALMOST recovered HALF of the ground lost last week. The very lowest yields seen today would have been the highest in 7 years on any other week. But enough of that depressing stuff! We all know this is a rising rate environment. And we also know traders are aware of that fact...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Hold Steady as Stocks Stabilize

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates held relatively steady today, finally leveling off after two solid days of improvement driven by the week's big stock market sell-off. Stocks and rates don't always move in the same direction at the same time, but when stocks make a big move lower, rates tend to benefit. This week's move lower in stocks was the 3rd largest since the financial crisis. In that light, we only saw a mere token of improvement for mortgage rates, but we'll take what we can get considering it was the only meaningful drop in rates since August 10th. For most of the day, it looked like stocks might head back down, but they recovered in the afternoon. That put an end to the hopes of any more improvement in mortgage rates for this week. Underlying bond markets were quick to follow stocks back in the other...(read more)

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"Debt-to-Income" Now Biggest Player in Mortgage Denials

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Mortgage denial rates ebb and flow with the economy, with lenders appetite for risk, and sometimes with the pressure lenders feel to make loans. Denial rates in 2017 continued to diminish as they have done since the economy began to improve in 2013 and were the lowest in any year since at least 2004. Using data collected from lenders under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA), CoreLogic estimates only about one in ten mortgage applications were denied last year. Poor credit used to be the primary reason that lenders turned borrowers away, but Yanling Mayer, writing in the CoreLogic Insights blog, says that, in the current credit cycle that has changed. The tight inventory of starter and lower-priced homes has pushed the prices of those homes up faster, impacting affordability more on that...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: Another Day of Stock Watching; Don't Expect Miracles

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Is there potential for today to turn into a "black Friday" with catastrophic stock losses that usher in the most amazing bond rally we've seen in years? Sure... that could happen any time, really, depending on the underlying events driving the move. In the current case, it's not highly likely unless we're ready to accept the end of the current economic expansion. That would be hard to do given the current course of economic data. Rather, the big shift in stocks will be reserved for a time when we're also seeing a big enough shift in the underlying data to cool the Fed's rate hike aspirations. This is why people like to blame the Fed for "causing" stock sell-offs, but the fact is that it's the data driving the Fed AND stocks. Based on the trajectory...(read more)

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Acquisition/lease Program; Slicing and Dicing Wells' Deal

Posted To: Pipeline Press

“Rob, are you hearing about investors taking more of a hard line on every issue right now? In recent years they would give an extra day, or waive something, but they are not doing this right now.” Yes, I am hearing that, and that “hard line” approach impacts the primary markets as well, and LOs should set borrower expectations. The “big guys” are testing the security market right now. (See the capital markets section for an interesting review of Wells’ deal.) Remember that in recent years plenty of securitizers have lost billions in fees and settlements due to loans in securities not being what they represented and want to avoid that at all costs. You can’t blame them dotting the i’s and crossing the t’s. Hopefully minor issues, unlike...(read more)

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Furry, Fuzzy, Scaly, Motivation

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Want to get that reluctant customer who has been "about to" buy a home for months a little push? If an analysis by the Urban Institute (UI) as reported in Freddie Mac's Homeownership blog is on target, your best marketing tool might be available at the local animal shelter. Admittedly that is a bit of a stretch, but here's the rationale. Both the 2013 and the 2017 American Housing Surveys (AHS), asked respondents "would you need help with your pets in case of a disaster?" Respondents had the option to say if they did not own a pet. The question is obviously meant for planning purposes for communities as they prepare emergency plans, but UI looked at responses from a different perspective. Freddie Mac says what UI found isn't too surprising. Pet ownership is at its highest when the head of household...(read more)

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New Home Sales Dip, Still Stronger than Last Year

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports a drop in applications for the purchase of newly constructed homes last month. Those applications fell by 3.9 percent compared to August although they remained 8.2 percent higher than they were the previous September. The change does not reflect any seasonal adjustment. The information comes from MBA's Builder Application Survey (BAS) which is conducted among the mortgage subsidiaries of new home builders. Based on the survey data as well as other marketing data, MBA projects that new home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 643,000 units. The seasonally adjusted annual number in August was 669,000. On an unadjusted basis, MBA estimates that there were 50,000 new home sales in September 2018, a decrease of 5.7 percent from...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Once More With (Slightly Less) Feeling

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds rallied today, eventually. Most of the session was fairly flat with the afternoon bringing most of the rally thanks to another sell-off in stocks. This time, the stock losses were more measured, but only relative to days like yesterday. On a normal week, today's stock losses would have been huge. The fact that bonds only gained as much as the did is telling, and probably grounds for concern about the sustainability of the move. As much as it pains me to say it, bonds have their widest eye on stocks at the moment. The uncertainty of the day's stock momentum prevented any bond trading aspirations during the morning hours, despite the fact that weaker core inflation justified a rally. Think about it this way: bonds already got to rally quite a bit yesterday, well before the inflation...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Drop to Last Thursday's Levels

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates fell today as the stock market sell-off remained in focus. Stocks and rates certainly don't have a linear and predictable relationship, but when stocks move lower as quickly as they have over the past 2 days, rates tend to see at least some benefit. Even though yesterday's stock sell-off was much worse, today was a better day for rates due to timing. Simply put, the mortgage market didn't have quite enough time to adjust to the move in stocks before the close of business. Lenders who did change rates yesterday were somewhat conservative with those changes in the event stocks bounced back in a major way. When stocks failed to improve overnight, mortgage lenders passed along more of the improvements seen in the underlying bond market. The average lender is now offering rates that...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: Here's What a Bond Rally Costs in Terms of Stock Selling

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Anything more than 20 points is a big day of selling in terms of the S&P, but that's a small enough number to be relatively common, periodically. From there, a sell-off of more than roughly 33 points becomes much less common. By the time we're talking about anything over 50 points, examples are limited to only a handful every year (and NONE from August 2011 through August 2015). Sell-offs of more than 80 points have occurred exactly 3 times during the recovery from the Great Recession--all of them in 2018--and yesterday was one of them. The other two 80+ point S&P sell-offs were back in February, and we can basically throw the 2nd one out as being driven by whipsaw that was part of the same sell-off (aka, stocks bounced bigly on the way down and then returned for only a bit...(read more)

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Non-QM, Digital, Tech Products; MSA Compliance Webinar; Vendors Raising Money

Posted To: Pipeline Press

We’re in the middle of mortgage conference season. (Are there any apple orchards left with all the applewood smoked bacon served at breakfasts?) The MBA’s National Conference begins Saturday - yes, nearly every conference eats into the weekend – and attendees will be watching the LTV (lender to vendor) ratio. Plenty of vendors are merging or partnering, raising money, offering new products – lots of news below. And in legal news, there’s even an app that lets people sue anyone! Great – just what we need, huh? Lender Products and Services Royal Pacific Funding (RPF) is offering its broker partners more value to their borrowers. RPF will apply a credit at closing for your borrower equal to a free appraisal (up to $500) on all purchase and refinance transactions...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: 4 Days After Bonds Went Crazy, Stocks Took a Turn

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Remember last Wednesday? Rather forget it? Yeah, me too. That was the day that bond yields spiked last week. The size and speed of the move was out of line with any of the common explanations. These things happen, of course, and when they do, it's best to focus on what's true and to admit that no one should even be able to know why everyone is making every trade in any given market. Yet that's exactly what tends to happen when volatility strikes the stock market. Today was the stock market's turn to have its explanation-defying selling spree, and it made last week's bond move look a bit tame by comparison. The financial media--respected or otherwise--had a field day with it. But it wasn't the kind of field day that was fun and exciting. Rather, it was hard to watch ...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Not Impressed by Market Volatility

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates are based on mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which are essentially bonds. Conventional wisdom holds that stocks and bonds supplement one another, and that as "money moves in" to one side of the market, it will move out of the other. Conventional wisdom is super duper wrong! If conventional wisdom held true today, we would have seen a very big move lower in rates. The massive sell-off in stocks means there was a huge amount of cash looking for a new home. While it's true that some of this cash did find its way into the bond market, the amount doesn't even begin to compare. By the end of the day, the bonds most closely tied to mortgage rates had barely reentered positive territory. Due to the timing of the afternoon market volatility, many mortgage lenders were still showing...(read more)

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Moody's Examines (And Endorses) Affordable Housing Bill

Posted To: MND NewsWire

It was largely ignored with the ongoing rush of news from Washington, but late last month Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) introduced a bill she says is aimed at increasing the amount of affordable housing , both for purchase and for rent. That bill, SB 3503, the American Housing and Economic Mobility Act, is now the subject of an independent analysis by Moody Analytics. Mark Zandi, Moody's Chief Economist authored the report. Zandi notes that construction of high-end housing, both for purchase and rent, recovered first from the housing crises and that type of housing is now in oversupply in many urban areas. Construction of units that are affordable for lower- and middle-income households to rent or own however, has only recently begun to increase and they continue to significantly lag demand...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Still Focused on Defense, But Hoping Offense Figures it Out

Posted To: MBS Commentary

One of the most important themes I've tried to communicate over the past 2 weeks is that the bond market is in the middle of redefining or repricing its relationship with the available data. There was a chance that 10yr yields would try to avoid a big break up and over 3%, but that chance relied heavily on risks that haven't materialized--at least not yet. If they materialize in the future, we'd likely see the positive effects on bonds at that time, but for now, here are a few of those unrealized risks: The trade war hasn't crippled the global economy, and it may end up looking more like "tough talk." The "renegotiation" of NAFTA is a poster child for this. Global markets can look at NAFTA 2.0 and conclude "that wasn't so bad... I guess I didn't...(read more)

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Warehouse and Non-QM Products; Agency Appraisal and Inspection Changes

Posted To: Pipeline Press

As Hurricane Michael heads toward Florida & Georgia (with the wind and storm surge, lenders and investors act – for example, Mr. Cooper has temporarily suspended loan purchases in several Florida counties effective today), contractors and builders are watching. Things aren’t rosy in that sector. DR Horton, for example, added to the housing unease with weaker than forecast sales. Home builder stocks have entered a bear market as interest rates continue to rise, tariffs have hurt the housing sector as higher building material costs from China negatively impact home builder margins, problems finding labor continue, the lack of raw, buildable land in some markets, along with the process and regulatory costs of building, first-time home buyers interested in the lower end of the market...(read more)

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Mortgage Application Activity Dwindles as Rates Move Higher

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Mortgage application activity declined during the week as the 30-year mortgage rate crossed the 5.0 percent line for the first time in seven years and other products moved to new seven or eight year highs. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measures of application volume, declined by 1.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ended October 5. On an unadjusted basis the index was down by 2.0 percent. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index lost ground for the first time in six weeks , decreasing by 1 percent compared to the previous week, and was down by 1.0 percent on an unadjusted basis as well. The unadjusted version remained 2.0 percent higher than during the same week in 2017. The Refinance Index fell by 3.0 percent and the share of...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Token Correction Ahead of More Important Data

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Today was a freebie for bond markets (and stocks to some extent). In the grand scheme of things, no one will look back at today and conclude anything meaningful. If anything, it will just look like a very calm, very flat trading day following a 3-day weekend for bonds. Yields hit new 7-year+ highs in the overnight session, but early domestic traders were finally interested in owning bonds at current levels. Several big block trades hit the screen just before and after 8am ET, and these effectively set the tone for the rest of the morning. In the absence of data and despite a bounce in stocks (not that we should expect stocks and bonds to be moving in the same direction at the moment), bonds continued drifting toward their best levels of the day just after 11am. They stayed sideways in that...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Improve Slightly Today, But Risks Remain

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates recovered a small portion of their recent losses today, but the average loan applicant might not even notice. The 2 key ingredients of a mortgage rate (for the purposes of tracking their movement) are the rate itself (the "note rate") and the upfront costs tied to that rate. The note rate and associated costs make up what many refer to as an "effective rate" (a number, expressed in interest rate form, that adjusts the actual note rate based on the implications of upfront cost changes. It takes big market movement to change note rates, largely because lenders tend to offer rates in 0.125% increments. As such, bond yields such as 10yr Treasuries need to be moving by about that much in order to see a similar change in mortgage rates. That was the case last week as 10yr yields moved...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: Where We Were, Where We Are, And Where We Might Be Going

Posted To: MBS Commentary

2009-2013 was an unprecedented time for the US bond market. It benefited not only from the initial blast of the Great Recession and the sluggish recovery that followed, but also from the ongoing blast of Fed bond buying and ultra-low rate policy During that time, economic data only ever mattered inasmuch as it affected the Fed's accommodation game plan. Even then, markets were 10 times more willing to trade the changes in the Fed's gameplan than they were the data itself. The 2013 taper tantrum is a great example (the data all but guaranteed a tapering announcement as of May 3rd, but markets didn't even begin to trade that notion until a May 10th Hilsenrath article suggested the Fed was getting ready to taper. And it wasn't until Bernanke mentioned it on May 22nd that things...(read more)

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White Paper on Customer Service, Warehouse Product; PIW's and Outsourcing

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Maybe I read somewhere that the average age of a loan officer is 76. Maybe not. (Actually, my visits with companies informally indicate that overall ages seem to be dropping as I see “new blood” entering the arena, often at lower comp plans with greater upside to compete with companies with very low basis points.) As Hurricane Michael approaches, I am reminded that there are plenty of older LOs, and people, in Florida (“God’s waiting room”) and other locales. There is actually a group that ranks active adult communities not only in Florida but around the U.S. based on location, residential types, amenities, price range, and lifestyle opportunities. (Who doesn’t want to live someplace that’s active? Ever seen a “sedate adult community” advertised...(read more)

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Joe Sanchez
Allied Equity
Ph: 909-932-9226Fax:909-803-9840
400 North Mountain Ave., Suite 223
Upland, CA 91786 US
CA DRE License # 01201910, NMLS: 359382, Company ID: 359090
www.alliedequity.com
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